Opinions
Why did the war last so long?
Writer: Rajab Abu Seria
To answer this question, which was to be asked, we must take into account the estimates that predicted the duration of what Israel, and no one else, called the military operation, on the eve of its launch after October 7 of last year 2023, as well as what the entire past period witnessed, which has so far exceeded four hundred days, while there does not seem to be a horizon for its end or cessation, in the near future, and at least two more months remain until the day of changing the presidential occupant in the White House, as well as what surrounded the period that is the subject of the question about regional and international political events, and internal bets and complications, especially in Israel, related to the far-right government and its president personally, and for this reason the question seems valid, before anything else, while the answer to it does not seem definitive, because political science originally belongs to the field of human sciences, which is governed by estimates and expectations more than it is subject to strict and specific definitive laws, as is the case with the natural sciences.
The Israelis called their war on the Gaza Strip a military operation, and after the airstrikes and the start of the ground invasion, they said about that stage of the war that it was a ground operation. This suggests, first, that the time of the military operation is limited, a limited number of days, weeks, or months. This may be due to a miscalculation, or it may be intentional. The aim is to contain regional and international reactions, which are certainly greater when talking about declaring war rather than launching a military operation. The goals of war are also greater and more distant than the goals of a military operation. Wars usually aim to occupy or destroy countries, or to control a disputed territory, or something similar. As for the military operation, its aim is to free hostages, destroy a facility, or eliminate a passing rebellion. Likewise, war is often between countries, while military operations may take place by one country against another country, or against an armed group, or any internal security event that the police are unable to confront. Although some Israeli military officials said at the start of their war on the Gaza Strip that it would be long, and that it would extend for months, and perhaps years, the most widely circulated estimate was that the war would last a few months, such that it would complete achieving its goals by the end of last year, i.e. not exceeding three months. Then, with the increase in the intensity of global rejection, especially in the first quarter of this year, with the successive sessions of the Security Council and the General Assembly of the United Nations, accompanied by South Africa submitting a complaint to the International Court of Justice in The Hague against Israel on charges of committing genocide, and the outbreak of massive demonstrations in all capitals and cities of the world, and even with an internal Israeli protest calling for a prisoner exchange deal, it was estimated that Benjamin Netanyahu, who has a personal and political interest in continuing the war, would not hold out any longer, and that the war would stop, through the entrance of the deal, which Washington used to justify its refusal to issue a binding resolution from the Security Council imposing a halt to the war on Israel, or demanding that Washington itself exert serious pressure on Israel to stop the war. As for the factors that contributed, in our estimation, to prolonging the war, they came from both sides, that is, from both sides of the war. Israel, in addition to all the followers, observers and interested parties, at all levels, did not estimate or expect with certainty, when Hamas carried out Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa, that others would participate in this war, based on previous wars waged by Israel on Gaza, since 2008, and no one intervened alongside Hamas, of course, and this is what prompted the leader of Al-Qassam, Muhammad Al-Deif, to appeal to what was later reinforced during the war as the axis of resistance, and the talk was about the "unity of the arenas" without testing this in the field, and Hezbollah intervened first, then Yemen and factions in Iraq, and thus the term "support fronts" appeared, which means that it is less than full participation in the war, and of course higher than verbal support, or political participation only, or standing aside. Weekly Kashf Al-Haqaiq Magazine Editor-in-Chief Jaafar Al-Khabouri
